The SNB context in early 2026
The Swiss National Bank closed 2025 with a 0.25% policy rate after several cuts. The 2026 trajectory remains uncertain: domestic inflation is stabilizing around 1.2%, the euro fluctuates between 0.93-0.96, and the ECB slows its own easing. Direct market impact: customer 3-month SARON sits between 1.3-1.8% (bank margin included), while 10-year fixed lands around 2.0-2.3%. The historical spread has narrowed to 50-80 basis points — far below the 150 bps seen in 2022.
Criterion 1: your horizon
If you'll keep the property under 5 years, SARON statistically wins: no early-repayment penalty, and even if the SNB hikes, the cumulative effect over 3-4 years stays limited. Beyond 7-10 years, fixed becomes relevant — you're buying peace of mind. For mixed profiles (couples planning a family upsize, uncertain mobility), a 50% SARON / 50% fixed-8y tranche split cuts risk without sacrificing all flexibility.
Criterion 2: your risk tolerance
Simple stress test: if the SNB lifted its rate to 2% (realistic over 24 months in an inflation shock), your SARON would go from 1.5% to roughly 3.0%. On a CHF 800,000 loan, that's CHF 12,000/year more in interest — CHF 1,000/month. If that extra cost would threaten your household budget, pick fixed — the money spent on "insurance premium" via the fixed-SARON spread is well justified. Conversely, with mobilizable savings and stable income, SARON remains mathematically superior over time.
Criterion 3: the real bank margin
Not all banks charge the same margin on the same product. On 3-month SARON, customer margins range from 0.75% (online banks, aggressive cantonal banks) to 1.2% (national big banks). On CHF 800,000, the yearly gap hits CHF 3,600. Polia systematically benchmarks several banks for the same product type at both origination and renewal (the margin applied 5 years from now may differ from today — don't forget the review clause).
Polia 2026 recommendation
Our market view in early 2026: for most borrowers (5-10 year horizon, stable income, emergency savings), a 60% 3-month SARON / 40% 10-year fixed split offers the best risk/return. The structure shields against an inflation shock while capturing the statistical drop in short rates if the SNB keeps easing. Retirees seeking absolute predictability: pure 10-year fixed. Young buyers with mobility and savings cushion: 100% SARON.
